Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
