🔗 Share this article

A mere 60 days in the past that Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery berated him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. During that period, with the team failed to win in six, the question was whether his performances were an indicator or the reason of the team's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. When Rogers curled home his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team marched on to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six matches, find themselves just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Challengers?

It remains an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. History, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, while the victories have accumulated.

As per the data, on just two occasions has the side had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club who have just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear curiously susceptible – but right now the margins are swinging for them.

The Rogers Recipe

The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on their star man to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more against Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge they have to face over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.

Potential for Growth

Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.

• Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
• The attacking talent might become the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defence.

Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.

Enjoying the Ride

Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential Three Lions star.

The current run must be cherished exactly since it seems so surreal. When the hero stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.